Introduction
 
Executive Summary
 
Background
 
California: The Changing Context
 
Tidal Wave II Revisited
 
The Original Projections
 
The 1994 Projections vs.Today's Reality
 
Accounting for the Growth
 
Updated Projections
 
How the Cohorts Have Changed
 
Is This a Tidal Wave?
 
Conclusion
 
Improving Projections
 
Endnotes
 
About the National Center

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Tidal Wave II Revisited

A Review of Earlier Enrollment Projections For California Higher Education

 

By

Gerald C. Hayward

David W. Breneman

Leobardo F. Estrada

 

September 1998

 

The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education


INTRODUCTION
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 
BACKGROUND
 
CALIFORNIA: THE CHANGING CONTEXT
   
TIDAL WAVE II REVISITED
   
THE ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS - AND THEIR ASSUMPTIONS
   
COMPARING THE 1994 PROJECTIONS TO TODAY'S REALITY
   
ACCOUNTING FOR THE GROWTH
   
UPDATED PROJECTIONS
   
HOW THE COHORTS HAVE CHANGED
   
IS THIS A TIDAL WAVE?
   
CONCLUSIONS
   
IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS
 
ENDNOTES
 
ABOUT THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND HIGHER EDUCATION

 

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