Reports & Papers


	Introduction

	Executive Summary

	Background

	California: The Changing Context

	Tidal Wave II Revisited

	The Original Projections

	The 1994 Projections vs.Today's Reality

	Accounting for the Growth

	Updated Projections

	How the Cohorts Have Changed

	Is This a Tidal Wave?

	Conclusion

	Improving Projections

	Endnotes

	About the National Center

Tidal Wave II Revisited

A Review of Earlier Enrollment Projections For California Higher Education

By

Gerald C. Hayward

David W. Breneman

Leobardo F. Estrada

September 1998

The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

INTRODUCTION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BACKGROUND

CALIFORNIA: THE CHANGING CONTEXT

TIDAL WAVE II REVISITED

THE ORIGINAL PROJECTIONS - AND THEIR ASSUMPTIONS

COMPARING THE 1994 PROJECTIONS TO TODAY'S REALITY

ACCOUNTING FOR THE GROWTH

UPDATED PROJECTIONS

HOW THE COHORTS HAVE CHANGED

IS THIS A TIDAL WAVE?

CONCLUSIONS

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS

ENDNOTES

ABOUT THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND HIGHER EDUCATION

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