Introduction
 
Executive Summary
 
Background
 
California: The Changing Context
 
Tidal Wave II Revisited
 
The Original Projections
 
The 1994 Projections vs.Today's Reality
 
Accounting for the Growth
 
Updated Projections
 
How the Cohorts Have Changed
 
Is This a Tidal Wave?
 
Conclusion
 
Improving Projections
 
Endnotes
 
About the National Center

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Page 5 of 15

Tidal Wave II Revisited

Given these tumultuous recent changes, the newly formed National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education asked the panel to reconvene ÷ not to review with the same level of detail the particulars of the various projections, but to arrive at some notion of where projected enrollments now stand. Had the economic downturn that dominated the first half of the decade significantly altered the context in which the earlier projections were made? Had the economic recovery, which appears to be the theme for the second half of the decade, allowed California to rekindle the access flame? Were the CPEC baseline projections the panel initially agreed upon still reasonable, or had they been rendered obsolete by radically changing conditions?5 Were their segments and the two state agencies coming closer in their projections or were the differences exacerbated? What recommendations might the panel make about the general state of these projections?

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