Executive Summary
California: The Changing Context
Tidal Wave II Revisited
The Original Projections
The 1994 Projections vs.Today's Reality
Accounting for the Growth
Updated Projections
How the Cohorts Have Changed
Is This a Tidal Wave?
Improving Projections
About the National Center

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Page 6 of 15

The Original Projections - and Their Assumptions

  Figure 1

Table 1: Click for larger image

In 1994, CPEC provided projections of enrollments to the year 2005 for all public college and university segments. CPEC uses an actuarial projection model that embodies student flows within each of the four-year segments and is based on tracking individual students until they complete their education. This methodology is resource intensive and therefore completed only periodically, not annually. For UC and CSU, CPEC begins with estimates of first-time freshmen (based on the estimates of high school graduates from the Department of Finance and estimates of participation rates) and transfer students (based on its own projections on community college enrollments). The flow of students from entry through departure is simulated to estimate continuation, attrition and graduation rates. For the community colleges, participation rates are used to estimate enrollments, with projections based on historical patterns of age-specific and racial/ethnic-specific enrollments by the corresponding California adult cohort.

CPEC provides two separate projections, a "baseline" projection and a "low alternative" projection. The major differences between them can be traced to differences in the expected rate of change in participation rates.


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