Introduction
 
Executive Summary
 
Background
 
California: The Changing Context
 
Tidal Wave II Revisited
 
The Original Projections
 
The 1994 Projections vs.Today's Reality
 
Accounting for the Growth
 
Updated Projections
 
How the Cohorts Have Changed
 
Is This a Tidal Wave?
 
Conclusion
 
Improving Projections
 
Endnotes
 
About the National Center

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Page 7 of 15

Comparing the 1994 Projections to Today's Reality

  Figure 1
 

Figure 1: Click for larger image

   
 
  Figure 2: Click for larger image
   
 
  Figure 3: Click for larger image
The first level of questions about the status of the projections concerns examining whether or not the projections match the short-term actual enrollments. This, of course, is hazardous, for the projections may be close, but for the wrong reasons. Table 2 compares actual undergraduate enrollments since 1994 with the CPEC baseline projections. For each segment, the actual enrollment in the most current year is very close and slightly higher than CPEC's 1994 baseline projections.

University of California
The most recent undergraduate enrollment level at UC is slightly higher (by only 0.4%) than the CPEC baseline projection. Over the four-year period, the average enrollment was slightly lower (by -0.73%) than projected.

California State University
In the most recent year, CSU's actual undergraduate enrollments exceed those projected by CPEC by over 7,000 students (2.7%). The average difference between actual and projected undergraduate enrollments over the four years was 1.43%

California Community Colleges
The community colleges had the greatest year-to-year variation in enrollments. The actual enrollments in the most current year, however, are quite close and slightly higher (by 1.3%) than CPEC projected in 1994. For the community colleges, the average difference between actual and projected enrollments over the four years was 0.91%.

Summary
The projections selected by the panel (CPEC baseline) in 1995 closely approximate actual enrollments through 1997. They are closer than the other projections the panel might have chosen. Actual enrollments increased at a pace slightly higher than originally projected.

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