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NCES Transfer Behavior Report
Alex McCormick’s research for the National Center for Educational Statistics provides a
good snapshot of transfer dynamics (McCormick and Carroll, 1997). McCormick
examined attendance patterns through the 1993–94 academic year for a national sample
of students who began their postsecondary education in 1989–90. Roughly a third of
these students had transferred at least once within four years; transfers were made by
about one in four of all students who began at a four-year institution, and by 43% of
students who began at a two-year institution (these figures include transfers to out-of-
state and private institutions). Among students who began at a two-year institution, about
half had transferred to a four-year institution. Only about a third of these 2/4 transfer
students earned the associate degree prior to transfer; the rest transferred without earning
a degree or credential. The bachelor’s degree attainment rate was higher for those who
had obtained an associate degree prior to transfer: 43% within five years, compared with
17% for those who transferred without the credential.
Of students who transferred from four-year institutions, just over half transferred to
another four-year institution; the rest transferred to two-year institutions. Students who
transferred from four-year institutions were less likely to have time gaps in their college
education than two-year transfers, usually re-enrolling within six months after leaving the
first institution. In contrast, nearly a quarter of two-year college students were out of
school for more than three years during the course of their education. On average, 2/4
transfer students spent about 20 months at the first institution. They often took a
considerable amount of time off between institutions—an average of 21 months. Half of
the two-year students who enrolled full-time during their first year in college
subsequently transferred to a four-year institution, but only a fourth of students who
enrolled part-time did so. Five years after starting college, a fourth of community college
transfer students had received a bachelor’s degree and another 44% were still enrolled at
a four-year institution. The overall persistence rate for community college transfer
students was about the same as that for students who began in a four-year institution.
Answers in the Toolbox
Adelman found that 63% of students who attend a four-year college attain a bachelor’s
degree by age 30; for those who start at highly selective colleges, the rate exceeds 90%.
Of students who begin at a community college, 26% formally transfer to a four-year
institution. The graduation rate for these 2/4 transfer students is 70%, which indicates that
the classic vertical transfer—in which a student earns at least a semester’s worth of
credits before moving to a four-year college—produces a high likelihood of bachelor’s
degree completion. Of all students who enroll in a community college and complete at
least 10 credits, one in five eventually earns a bachelor’s degree.
SUNY Transfer Study
Ronald Ehrenberg and Christopher Smith (2002) studied 2/4 transfer performance within
the SUNY system and showed how data on transfer performance can be used to develop
models that will predict transfer performance. Noting the considerable disparities among
the SUNY campuses in their transfer and graduation performance, Ehrenberg and Smith
evaluated data for full-time students who had transferred within SUNY from a two-year
to a four-year institution at the start of the 1995 and 1996 fall semesters. They also
examined these students’ persistence to the baccalaureate degree within three years of
transfer, and they developed a statistical model to predict transfer performance by
campus and for degree and nondegree two-year transfer students. This model can be used
to rank colleges’ transfer effectiveness, and it could also be extended to study statewide
performance in both private as well as public institutions. In addition to being a tool for
ranking campuses, the methodology could serve as the basis for performance and
incentive funding, and also as the point of departure for an analysis of best practices to
help underperforming institutions improve their transfer performance.
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Answers in the Toolbox, Clifford Adelman’s report for the Office of Educational
Research and Improvement in the U.S. Department of Education, combined longitudinal
student enrollment and degree data with transcript analysis, and correlated characteristics
of individual students and academic programs with student flow patterns (Adelman,
1999). Adelman found that the single most important predictor of future baccalaureate
attainment for all students—four-year as well as two-year—is the academic intensity and
quality of their high school curriculum. Adelman confirmed McCormick’s findings about
student enrollment patterns, reporting that over 60% of undergraduates attend more than
one institution, and 40% transfer across state lines. Because so many students attend
more than one institution and take time off, Adelman reasoned that graduation or transfer
rates for individual institutions are less meaningful than regional and national
aggregations that capture the flow of students across institutions. He also stressed the
importance of credit-based measures of retention and degree attainment rather than time-
based measures, because the majority of students attend part-time and have gaps in their
attendance even when they persist to the degree.
